Beyond the Numbers - Unpacking the Truth About Averages
On January 17, 2025, I delivered a speech at East Side Toastmasters Club inspired by the thought-provoking book The End of Average: How We Succeed in a World That Values Sameness by Todd Rose. The speech explored how the concept of “average,” while seemingly straightforward, often misleads us—especially when applied to individuals rather than groups. Through simple examples and a bit of history, I invited the audience to rethink how they interpret averages in daily life, and why questioning them can lead to smarter decisions and deeper understanding.
Below is the text of my speech. I hope it gets you thinking too!
I was working on the “Level 2: Effective Body Language” project and I’ve included notes on how I planned to use body language.
Transcript
Good evening, Toastmasters and guests!
Did you know that the ‘average’ American household has 2.5 people? Think about that for a moment—who’s the half person? Is it a toddler? A very quiet roommate? Of course, there’s no such thing as half a person, but this quirky statistic gets us thinking about the curious world of averages.
[Move across the stage, to the balls] Tonight, I’m inviting you on a journey to unravel the truth about averages— how we sometimes misuse them, and how understanding them better could make us just a little wiser.
Part 1: A Tale of Two Averages
Let’s start with a demonstration.
I have here a collection of tennis balls and table tennis balls. Imagine I ask one of you to find the average diameter of a mix of tennis and table tennis balls. You’d measure, add, and divide. This tells us something about the group. The average household of 2.5 people or the average size of apartments in Manhattan works the same way—it represents the group, not any one apartment.
[Use finger to indicate 1] Now, let’s switch gears. What if I gave you one ball and asked for its diameter? You might measure it a few times because measuring is hard and average those measurements. This is a very different use of averages—one that describes a single item. It’s like estimating the height of the Empire State Building from multiple observations.
[Step forward to emphasize the idea] The big idea is that we use “average” for two very different concepts: describing groups or individuals. This subtle difference might seem harmless, but mixing them up can lead to some pretty big misunderstandings.
Part 2: How We Got Here
[Move laterally to indicate transition] Let’s dive into a little history to see how this mix-up happened.
[Point to balls] The word “average” dates back to the 1200s. Back then, it was used in maritime trade to refer to splitting costs among everyone involved. Over time, it evolved to describe equal distribution—like the average size of a group of balls or apartments.
The word “mean” came later, in the 1700s, when astronomers were trying to pinpoint the positions of stars and planets. They’d take multiple measurements and average them to get closer to the truth. This “mean” referred to the true value of a single thing.
So historically, we had two separate words: “average” for groups and “mean” for individuals. But along the way, we started using “average” for both.
Part 3: When Averages Mislead
[Move laterally to indicate transition] Raise your hand if you’ve ever visited an apartment and thought, “This place looks just like the average apartment!” Nobody? It’s absurd to think any one place matches the average size, just like expecting a household to have exactly 2.5 people.
But this mistake happens often, especially with people, having some serious consequences.
[Move laterally to indicate transition] [Quetelet - K-te-le]
In the 1800s, a scientist named Quetelet studied soldiers’ data, calculated the “ideal” chest size, and popularized the concept of the “Average Man.” Soon we designed everything—from uniforms to cockpits—based on averages.
It worked… at first. Planes were initially designed based on the average pilot from the 1920s. But then came the 1940s, engineers invented jet engines. Planes became faster, harder to control, and, unfortunately, more prone to crashing. On one tragic day, 17 pilots crashed their planes in mishaps.
The Air Force initially thought pilots’ bodies had changed since the 1920s, so they remeasured thousands of them. But one sharp scientist realized something shocking: there was no such thing as an “average” pilot. Not one single pilot matched the average on all dimensions like height, arm length, or torso size. Designing for the “average” was like designing homes for 2.5 people—it didn’t work.
Part 4: The Solution
The Air Force stopped designing for the “average” and invented adjustable seats, pedals, and controls for real pilots. The crashes dropped.
[Move forward to emphasize] This story isn’t just about planes. It’s about how averages can fail us when we try to apply them to individuals. Whether it’s designing products, setting policies, or judging ourselves, we can’t assume that “average” equals “normal” or “ideal.” Life is far too complex for that.
Part 5: Bringing It Home
So next time you hear about an “average,” pause and ask: Are they describing a group of or an individual? Understanding that difference could change how you see the world—and maybe even make you a little above average.
Thank you.